Aggregation of Producer Durables with Exogenous Technical Change and Endogenous Useful lives

The received theory of aggregation has been erected on certain fundamental hypotheses. One of them is that producer durables deteriorate exponentially, which implies that their replace-ment is proportional to the corresponding capital stocks. However the proportionality hypothesis conflicts with most of the available theoretical and empirical evidence. So an effort to relax it is long overdue. To this end the present paper investigates the conditions for consistent aggregation in a two-sector vintage capital model with exogenous technological change and endogenous use-ful lives. In the model aggregation is achieved by adaptation of the procedure first suggested by Haavelmo (1960). From the simulations of the solution with data from the United States in the post-war period it is found that the conventional approach to aggregation may be responsible for significant biases in the measurement of the economy-wide capital stock.E20

The Theorem of Proportionality in Mainstream Capital Theory: An Assessment of its Applicability

This paper surveys and assesses the empirical literature that bears on the applicability of the theorem of proportionality, which asserts that depreciation is proportional to the outstanding capital stock. All available evidence shows that: a) the rates of depreciation and retirements vary from year to year in response to changes in conventional economic forces like utilization, maintenance and repair, the prices of new capital goods, etc., and b) while the approximation of the distribution of depreciation rates by a single parameter may be characterized by simplicity and ease of use, at the same time it thwarts the advances that can be achieved by returning to a general equilibrium model centered on the time structure of capital and the useful lives of its components. For this reason, it is concluded that, the sooner this theorem is replaced by an endogenous theory of depreciation and replacement, the better for economic theory and policy.Capital longevity, replacement, depreciation, scrappage, maintenance, utilization, obsolescence

The optimal lifetime of assets under uncertainty in the rate of embodied technical change

This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty emanating from technological im-provements on the optimal lifetime of assets. In does so in a dynamic model in which: a) technological change increases continuously the productivity of producers’ durables, b) po-tential competition induces firms to price their output in a way that passes all benefits to final consumers, and c) the mean and the variance are considered sufficient statistics to describe the probability distribution of technological change. From the analysis it turns out that in general this type of uncertainty shortens the optimal lifetime of assets. More specifically, the analysis shows that: replacement under uncertainty leads to optimal lifetimes of assets that are shorter than in any other mode of operation; depending on the mean rate of technological progress, , and the price elasticity of demand, , scrapping under uncertainty yields life-times that may be shorter or longer than those determined by replacement under certainty; and, irrespective of the values of these parameters, the optimal lifetime of assets from a pol-icy of scrapping under uncertainty is always shorter than that from scrapping under cer-tainty. However, the robustness of these results under alternative specifications of the prob-ability distribution of technological change remains an open questionservice life; replacement; scrapping; embodied technical change; uncertainty

The Puzzle of the Replacement Ratio in the Context of Renewal Theory

The models Feldstein and Rothschild (1974) and Jorgenson (1974) adopted to highlight the nature of the replacement ratio were identical. Yet, even though the theorems they derived from them were complementary and reinforced each other, the authors reached diametrically opposite conclusions. Digging deeper into the controversy that erupted, it emerges that the staying power of the theorem, according to which replacement is a constant propor-tion of the outstanding capital stock, may be attributed to the following reasons. The discernible shift from realism to instrumentalism in the methodology of economics; Its operational advantages; The data that accumulated, thus facilitating research without having to compute capital stock series from scratch; The inertia of the status quo, which is sustained by the absence of a process to decide when a theorem is in conflict with experience and should be set aside, and lastly the lack of a model leading to a more useful theorem than the one un-der consideration. In this light it is concluded that the time has come for research efforts to be directed towards constructing and testing models in which the useful life of capital is deter-mined endogenously in the presence of embodied technological change.Proportional replacement hypothesis, renewal theory, durability, aggregation

Determinants of Expenditure in Automobile Maintenance: Some Evidence from Greece

This paper derives a model of maintenance expenditures from an analytical framework in which maintenance, utilization and service life are appropriately integrated and estimates it with the help of automobile data from Greece. On the theoretical plain it is shown that the model allows endogenously for most of the variables that have been identified in the relevant literature as important determinants of maintenance expenditures. Also the model yields sharp sign predictions for the included variables and by doing so it sheds considerable light on sev-eral outstanding issues in this area. On the empirical plain it is found that: a) the best func-tional form is obtained when the model is estimated using Box-Cox power transformed vari-ables in conjunction with the pooled data of the sample and country specific dummy variables to allow for shifts in the intercepts; b) the reported amounts of outlays for automobile mainte-nance are positively related to the automobile’s age, salvage value and intensity of utilization, and c) Italian cars are most demanding in maintenance outlays, followed by cars from France, Germany and Other Countries, which turn out to be roughly equally expensive, and, lastly, by cars made in Japan which appear to be the least expensive to maintain. However, the elastic-ities of maintenance expenditures with respect to these three variables follow exactly the re-verse order, so car buyers face a choice between cars with high levels of maintenance and low elasticities, and vice versa.maintenance, utilization, service life, maintenance and car accidents, multiple car ownership

Scale, scope and entrepreneurship

To exploit the economies of scale and scope in multi-product technologies, enterprises in advanced capitalist countries grew in the last 150 years in three directions. By substituting in the place of traditional entrepreneurs professional managers, they developed organisational capabili-ties to co-ordinate effectively activities that were widely dispersed geographically and function-ally. They promoted rapid innovation by resorting to systematic Research and Development ef- forts. And, finally, they enhanced control over their markets by introducing innovations whose application required large-scale investment. In the course of these transformations the material standards in the respective countries rose to unprecedented levels. But simultaneously they led to losses in market co-ordination be-cause these transformations increased market imperfections. As a result the economies of scale and scope appear to be negatively related to the ratio of co-ordination to innovation in the econ-omy. Hence, to the extent that policy makers strive to achieve the priorities of citizens, they are advised to allow for the implications of this relationship to the best of available information.Entrepreneurship, co-ordination, innovation, economies of scale and scope.

The Theorem of Proportionality in Mainstream Capital Theory: An Assessment of its Conceptual Foundations

It is ascertained that the theorem of proportionality, which maintains that replacement investment is a constant proportion of the outstanding capital stock, has several fundamental shortcomings. It derives from a model founded on assumptions that are highly restrictive and unlikely to hold in reality. It is alien to the thinking of researchers in industrial organization and other neighboring fields to economics that treat the durability of capital goods as a choice variable. It ignores several thorny conceptual and methodological issues and, perhaps most important, it may have restrained seriously the progress towards developing models based on more realistic approaches of production. However, despite its shortcomings, the theorem continues to dominate mainstream capital theory, most probably because of: a) its simplicity, and b) the lack of a model that might yield a better theorem in terms of standard criteria, like explanatory and predictive power, simplicity, fruitfulness, etc. For this reason attention is drawn to recent research which shows that a model centered on the heterogeneous structure of capital and the useful lives of its components is both feasible and exceedingly rich in theoretical and empirical implications.Capital longevity, replacement, depreciation, scrappage, maintenance, utilization, obsolescence.

Entrepreneurship and market order: Some historical evidence

Our objective here is to establish the proposition that creative entrepreneurship gives rise to a market order which is optimally adjusted to facilitate the introduction and the diffusion of innovations, particularly those that take the form of new markets, new organizational schemes, new management devices and new methods and means of doing business. To substantiate this claim we extract from the existing historical literature and employ the ideal type entrepreneurial method of the Greek diaspora network. The interpretation we offer is that this method showed a high degree of operational flexibility and institutional adaptability and that it is these two proper-ties that explain its marked tenacity over time. The key ingredient for its success is traced to the self-regulatory robustness of the network, which was secured by the commitment of its partners to a moral order based on the triptych of ‘trust, reliability and reciprocity’ as well as to their ac-ceptance in advance of the sanctions in case of transgressions. Moreover, the embeddedness of the branches of the network in the Greek communities abroad, called Paroikies, where the Greek Orthodox Church provided moral leadership and maintained the community ties, reinforced the adherence of network partners to the rules of ethical business conduct. But in our view the domi-nant force in the design of the core mechanism that made the Greek diaspora network such a suc-cess was entrepreneurship.Entrepreneurship; Institutions; Networks; International Business Organizations

Ocean shipping : by far the best growth model for Greece

Today there is unanimous agreement that the country’s production model must change. But Greeks are very confused about the direction of the necessary changes. For, as the recent elections revealed, the vast majority of citizens have been brainwashed into believing outrageous promises about what the Greek leviathan state can do for them. Hence, the situation may be expected to worsen, unless Greeks start soon to realize: first, that the model of nearly centrally planned economy that we inherited has failed us miserably; and, secondly, that it must be replaced by a new model based on the flexibility of competitive markets and export oriented policies and entrepreneurship. If and when this change of mind and heart takes effect, the answer to the question which economic growth model is best for Greece will become self-evident. It is the model of ocean shipping because in the same time that a small number of dynamic Greeks control 17% of world trade shipments and contributes not less than 6% to the country’s GDP, organized minorities of politicians, labor unions, professional associations, etc., do everything in their power to keep Greece in the role of a global beggar. The aim of this paper is to document that the model of ocean shipping, in which Greeks dominate for centuries, offers by far the most promising growth model, because it can get us quickly out of the impasse we find ourselves presently.peer-reviewe

Welfare benefits and the rate of unemployment: some evidence from the European Union in the last thirty years

Our objective in this paper is to re-examine the hypothesis that welfare benefits may be responsi-ble for the observed differences in cross- country unemployment rates and test its validity by using panel data from 19 countries over the 1970-2000 period. For this purpose, we set up a general equi-librium model encompassing the private and public sectors of the economy, where the government comes to the relief of the unemployed by increasing the welfare benefits per man. From this model, we extract an unemployment rate equation. The results that emerge from the empirical analysis sug-gest that social benefits per man may indeed adversely influence the rate of unemployment in EU-15. But the results change significantly when the EU member states are classified as high-, low- and average unemployment countries. In particular, we find that, whereas unemployment benefits exert perceptible positive influences in the high and average unemployment sub-groups, their influence in the low unemployment sub-group is nil. This finding, in conjunction with the evi-dence that the unemployment rate is invariant with respect to social benefits in USA and Canada, leads us to the conclusion that some EU countries may have to restructure their welfare systems, so as to reduce welfare benefits in favour of greater labour market flexibility and self-reliance on the part of workers.unemployment rate, welfare benefits, European Union